Curve Wave
Forecast the Tipping Point - How to Capture the Wave of Opportunity
As more and more companies adopt the new technology, market momentum starts taking on a life of its own. At this point you want to be able to forecast when the tipping point will occur, so you will be well positioned to take advantage of it. The tipping point is when the benefits of adopting the discontinuous innovation overcome the pain cause by not adopting it. It is the moment in time when adoption becomes inevitable and anyone who doesn't adopt will be left behind.
In his fascinating book, The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell makes three key points about what causes people to change, which has important implications for selling up the technology adoption curve.
Change is contagious.
Once people see he early adopters enjoying the benefits of a new technology, they are going to want to enjoy them, too. Ask your early adopters for testimonials describing the superiority of your solution. Many early adopters expect a lot of special services. They know that your success depends on their satisfaction, so they use it as leverage to get you to do a lot of extra work for them for free. Make sure that in return they will write you testimonial letters and allow you to bring other customers to see the successfully implemented solution. A reference base will be critical to your success when the market takes off.
Little causes can have big effects.
The market drivers that cause the market to accelerate can often be small changes that happen at the right time. Thanks to your market perspective, you are more likely to recognize the little causes that end up tipping the market. Market analysts rarely pick up little causes. You have to be close to the customer to figure out the real reasons that cause the new solution to work. Once you do recognize them, use them to map how the market will evolve, so you can anticipate each new wave of prospects.
Change happens in a hurry.
When the market takes off, you want to be ready. Ideally you will be actively working accounts before your prospect start their decision making process. If you have anticipated who needs the solution correctly, you might be the first one to approach the prospect with the technology's value. Being first is a big advantage, especially as the market develops and becomes more competitive.
Geoffrey Moore identifies this stage of market development as the "tornado" in his book, Inside the Tornado. This is "when demand dramatically outstrips supply and a huge backlog of customers appear overnight... It represents a massive sale opportunity in and of itself, it also represents an even larger follow-on market opportunity." In other words, it is an extraordinary sales opportunity that you don't want to miss because you aren't ready for it.
To forecast the tipping point, you estimate how long it will take for your early adopters to implement their first projects successfully. Then you project the same amount of time into the future and divide by two. This should give you a rough estimate of the tipping point for your solution.
Market analysts make their living predicting the future, so they are a good source for statistics about market adoption. However, a more practical and reliable source of information may be the observation of your prospects' behavior. As the market evolves from visionary, early adopters to the more practical and pragmatic early majority buyers, you are getting closer to the tipping point. As prospects' adoption motivators change from building competitive advantage or developing new markets to improving productivity and performance, the market is gaining momentum. When prospects start asking you more questions about where your solution has been successfully implemented and what were the measurable results it produced, you can be sure that the tipping point is drawing closer.
Janice Lawrence has advised leading edge technology companies for the past two decades on how to sell innovative technology. Follow her Sell Results Blog [http://blog.sellresults.com/]
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